Will This Matter in Ten Years? Expanding Time to Shrink Problems
Introduction
Marcus Aurelius had a peculiar exercise for putting his problems into proportion. He would picture the era of Emperor Vespasian, about a hundred years before his own, and walk through it in his mind: people marrying, raising children, falling ill, dying, fighting, celebrating, flattering, scheming, wishing to be consul or king. And he would conclude: of all that life, nothing remains now. Then he would do the same with the era of Trajan. And again: nothing.
The exercise was not an invitation to despair. It was a way to gain perspective. If the worries that consumed Vespasian's court no longer exist today, many of the worries consuming our attention right now probably won't matter in a few years either.
What looks like a mountain today, seen from ten years in the future, is usually just a pebble on the road.
The blog already dedicated an article to the "view from above," the Stoic technique that gains distance in space. This article focuses on its counterpart: distance in time.
The Present Weighs More Than It Should
The human mind tends to give enormous weight to the present moment. Whatever happens today feels more important, more urgent, and more serious than anything in the past or future. That is a useful feature for survival because it forces us to deal with what is right in front of us, but it comes at a cost: it distorts the scale of our problems.
An argument with a coworker, a critical comment on social media, a mistake in a presentation—in the moment, they take up all our attention. A week later, they are often forgotten. A year later, almost always.
Living attentively in the present moment is good advice, and the Stoics themselves gave it. But when going through a difficulty, it helps to step back from it mentally to see it clearly.
Marcus Aurelius's Notes on Time
The Meditations are full of reminders about brevity and impermanence. A few paraphrased examples:
- Soon you will have forgotten everything, and soon everyone will have forgotten you.
- Think of the vastness of past time and future time, and how brief the present is by comparison.
- Everything you see will soon change and cease to exist. Remember how many changes you have already witnessed.
- Asia and Europe are corners of the universe; the whole sea, a drop; Mount Athos, a clod of earth.
These ideas can sound bleak, but Marcus Aurelius used them for two practical purposes: to shrink the importance of slights and fame, and to focus on the only thing he considered truly valuable—acting well in the present moment.
The Ten-Year Question
The simplest modern version of the exercise is a single question: will this matter ten years from now?
The question has one great virtue: it is fast. You can ask it in the middle of an argument, in front of an annoying email, or during a sleepless night. And it almost always yields a clear answer.
If the answer is no, the problem drops a tier. It is still real and you may still need to handle it, but it no longer deserves the anguish it was causing.
If the answer is yes, the question is useful too: it signals that the matter deserves serious attention, and that it is worth devoting calm energy to it.
The Three-Horizons Exercise
A fuller variation consists of looking at the problem from three distances. Writer Suzy Welch popularized a similar method by considering the consequences of a decision ten minutes, ten months, and ten years out. The Stoic version places the emphasis on the importance of the problem, not just the decision:
1. One week: how am I going to see this seven days from now? 2. One year: will I remember it? Will anything important have changed because of it? 3. Ten years: will it be part of my life story, or will it have faded away?
Writing down the three answers usually makes it obvious where the problem sits on the real scale of things.
Perspective Without Nihilism
The exercise carries a risk: taking it too far and concluding that nothing matters. If a thousand years from now nobody will remember anything, why make an effort at all?
The Stoics did not reach that conclusion, and it is worth understanding why. For them, the impermanence of external things (fame, slights, possessions) did not mean life lacked value. On the contrary: precisely because everything passes, the only thing that truly matters is how we act right now. Virtue does not depend on being remembered.
That is why, after nearly every reminder about brevity, Marcus Aurelius returns to action: doing what is right, treating others well, fulfilling the duty of the moment.
When Not to Use It
There are situations where the ten-year question does not help or can even be harmful:
- Problems that do matter in the long run: a health decision, growing debt, a deteriorating relationship. Here the question should lead to action, not minimization.
- Grief and loss: telling someone that their pain "won't matter in ten years" is cruel.
- Serious injustices: relativizing abuse or discrimination is not Stoicism.
- When used to procrastinate: "after all, in ten years it won't matter" can become an excuse not to do what needs to be done.
The question works best for everyday problems that take up more space than they deserve: friction, annoyances, criticism, minor setbacks.
Common Mistakes
- Using it to invalidate other people's emotions. It is a tool for your own perspective.
- Confusing perspective with indifference. Just because something won't matter in ten years doesn't mean you shouldn't solve it today.
- Applying it only to negative things. It also works for positive ones: will it matter ten years from now that I spent this afternoon with my kids? Probably yes.
- Stopping at reflection. After gaining perspective, it helps to ask what you can do right now.
Conclusion
Marcus Aurelius mentally walked through Vespasian's court to remind himself that almost everything we worry about passes. This week, whenever something upsets you, ask yourself the ten-year question. If that feels hard, write out the three-horizons exercise: one week, one year, ten years. At the end of the week, check how many of the problems you wrote down still look just as big. And for the ones that truly do matter, define your first action today.
References
- Marcus Aurelius. Meditations, IV.32, IV.48, VI.36, VII.21, and IX.32.
- Welch, S. (2009). 10-10-10: A Life-Transforming Idea. Scribner.
- Bruehlman-Senecal, E., & Ayduk, O. (2015). This too shall pass: Temporal distance and the regulation of emotional distress. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 108(2), 356-375.
- Hadot, P. (1992). La citadelle intérieure: Introduction aux Pensées de Marc Aurèle. Fayard.
- Vázquez, M. (2019). Invicto: Logra más. Sufre menos. Fitness Revolucionario.